Everyday Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Figures

The mean figure of everyday killings each month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent administrative data. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that murder data may not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when the President took the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded during these months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the smallest number of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety experts cautioned that using murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not useful for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it may mask days when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Using the daily average renders surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst concluded.