Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
