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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.