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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd